The week of March 21, 2025, saw U.S. stock markets generally closing higher, recovering from previous multi-week declines, albeit with tech stocks lagging. Trading volumes were light as investors digested Fed policies, economic forecasts, and geopolitical risks. The Federal Reserve held interest rates steady, but noted increased economic uncertainty and adjusted inflation/GDP projections. 

Economic data presented a mixed picture, with disappointing retail sales offset by strong home sales. International markets showed varied performance, with European markets reacting to potential U.S. tariffs and Asian markets navigating their own economic challenges.

Breakdown:

• U.S. Markets:
  The Dow Jones Industrial Average outperformed, while the Nasdaq Composite lagged, weighed down by large-cap tech.Value stocks continued to outperform growth stocks significantly.
  
  Trading volumes were notably light, indicating investor caution.The S&P 500, S&P 400, and S&P 600 all finished with gains of roughly 0.5% for the week.
  

• Federal Reserve (Fed):The Fed held interest rates steady, as expected.
  They projected 50 basis points of rate cuts for the year, but increased inflation expectations and lowered GDP growth forecasts.
  
  Fed Chair Jerome Powell indicated that tariff impacts are expected to be "transitory."
  The Fed announced a slowing of their Quantitative Tightening program.

• Economic Data:Retail sales disappointed, showing a smaller-than-expected increase.
  
  Control group sales, which factor into GDP, exceeded expectations.The Empire State Manufacturing Survey indicated a significant drop in business activity.
  Existing home sales and housing starts exceeded expectations.
  Core CPI in japan rose more than expected.
  

• Bond Markets:
  U.S. Treasuries saw positive returns as yields declined.Municipal bonds also posted gains.
  
  High-yield bond market volumes were muted early in the week but gained momentum after the Fed meeting.

• European Markets:The STOXX Europe 600 Index ended higher, snapping a two-week losing streak.
  Concerns over U.S. tariffs impacted market sentiment.
  
  Central banks, including the ECB, expressed caution due to trade-related uncertainty.
  The ECB is expected to cut rates in the coming months.

• Japanese Markets:Japanese stock markets rose, driven by foreign investor interest.
  
  The Bank of Japan held rates steady, monitoring the potential impact of U.S. tariffs.The yen weakened slightly.
  
  Japanese CPI data reinforces the possibility of future interest rate increases.

• Chinese Markets:
  Mainland Chinese stock markets fell as investors turned cautious.Economic data showed mixed results, with strong retail sales and industrial output, but weakness in the property sector.
  
  Brokerages upgraded GDP forecasts, reflecting confidence in Beijing's growth targets.

• Other Key Markets:
  Turkish markets were impacted by the detention of Istanbul's mayor.
  Brazil's central bank raised interest rates, signaling potential for further increases.

• Key Themes:Impact of potential U.S. tariffs on global markets.
  Balancing economic growth with inflation concerns.
  Central bank policy adjustments amid economic uncertainty.
  The continued volatility of the stock market.